Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Vitaly Kurdyumov's avatar

The 7.3% implied cap rate looks cheap next to the 6.4% median, but the yardstick moved. Over the last 15 years the 10-year Treasury averaged about 2.6%, so a median cap rate gave REITs roughly 3.8 points over bonds. Today the 10-year sits at 5.0%, which leaves 7.3% only 2.3 points above it. Measured against Treasuries, REITs are pricier than usual, not cheaper.

That changes what the trade depends on. For cap rates to drift back toward 6.4% without the spread to bonds getting even thinner, the 10-year has to come down a lot. And the macro isn't helping: we're nine months into a stretch where growth and inflation both run hot, and the market is pricing Fed hikes, not cuts.

So I'd read the 5th percentile valuation as mostly a rate story. Picking the good REITs inside the universe still matters, but a sector-wide rerating probaly waits for the bond market.

Arges's avatar

Really enjoyed this one. I loved how you built the investable universe step by step, going from 33 REITs down to 15. The way REITs are sitting near the 5th percentile on valuation made the opportunity really clear. Thank you.

Ready for more?